Will Support for Israel Cost Biden Michigan?

Overview:

This article by Karlyn Bowman, Nate Moore, and Ruy Teixeira at the American Enterprise Institute explores the potential political impact of President Biden's support for Israel on his electoral prospects in Michigan, particularly among Muslim and Arab American voters.

• It discusses the "Abandon Biden" movement, initiated by some Muslim community leaders in response to Biden's stance on Israel, aiming to persuade Muslim and Arab Americans to vote for a third-party candidate.
• The article analyzes the significance of the Arab American vote in Michigan, a key battleground state, and weighs the potential electoral consequences for Biden.

Key Quotes:

1. "An October survey found just 17.4 percent of Arab Americans would vote for Joe Biden in a general election matchup with Donald Trump—a more than 40-point decline from 2020."
2. "The Biden administration should not sacrifice its principled foreign policy for small, short-term electoral gains."

What They Discuss:

• The article highlights the decline in President Biden's approval rating among Arab Americans and the potential impact of this shift on the 2024 election.
• It examines the electoral dynamics in Michigan, noting that while the Arab American vote is significant, it may not be sufficient alone to determine the election outcome.
• The piece considers other factors that could influence Biden's campaign in Michigan, including the enthusiasm of Black and Hispanic voters.
• It discusses the historical voting patterns of Arab Americans in Michigan and the potential for these voters to lean towards the GOP due to social conservatism, regardless of Biden's foreign policy.
• The article also addresses the potential risk of alienating Jewish voters if the Democratic stance against Israel becomes too hardline.

What They Recommend:

• Cataneo suggests that the Biden administration should maintain its foreign policy principles rather than making concessions for electoral gains.
• The article implies that the Biden campaign should focus on larger demographic groups and core Democratic constituencies, as these will have a more significant impact on the election outcome.

Key Takeaways:

• The shift in Arab American support away from Biden in Michigan reflects broader political and social trends that transcend foreign policy issues.
• While the Arab American vote is important, it is unlikely to be the sole deciding factor in Michigan's electoral outcome.
• The Biden administration faces a complex balancing act in maintaining its foreign policy stance while addressing the concerns of diverse voter groups.

This is a brief overview of Karlyn Bowman, Nate Moore, and Ruy Teixeira's work from American Enterprise Institute. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.