Trump wins Iowa — no surprises there. What happens next?

Overview:

• The article by Elaine Kamarck analyzes the results of the Republican Iowa caucus, focusing on Donald Trump's victory and its implications for the upcoming nomination race.
• Trump's win in Iowa was expected, and he secured over 50% of the vote, performing well across various voter groups.
• The race for second place was also as predicted, with Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley finishing second and third, respectively.

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Key Quotes:

1. "Trump won Iowa with just over 50% of the vote. He didn’t exceed expectations but neither did he fall below them."
2. "The next two months are likely to settle the question once and for all: Will Trump wrap up the Republican nomination early and start the battle against Joe Biden by mid-March or will he face a fight from someone (most likely Haley) all the way to the convention?"

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What They Discuss:

• The dynamics of the Republican nomination process as a sequence of state races, each influenced by the previous one.
• The potential impact of the Iowa results on upcoming primaries, especially in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
• The strategic positions of Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in the race and their potential to challenge Trump.
• The unique aspects of different state electorates and how they might affect the candidates' performances.
• The importance of delegate accumulation in the nomination process, leading up to "Super Tuesday."

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What They Recommend:

• The article does not explicitly recommend any specific actions but provides an analysis of the current political landscape and potential strategies for the candidates.

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Key Takeaways:

• Trump's victory in Iowa sets the stage for the next primaries, with his performance likely influencing the strategies of other candidates.
• The race for the Republican nomination is still open, with potential challenges from Haley and DeSantis.
• The upcoming primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and "Super Tuesday" states will be crucial in determining the Republican nominee.

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This is a brief overview of Elaine Kamarck's work from Brookings. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.