The implications of the AI boom for nonstate armed actors

Overview:

The article from Valerie Wirtschafter at Brookings explores the potential implications of the AI boom, particularly generative AI, for nonstate armed actors in 2024. It discusses how these actors might exploit AI for criminal activities, including disinformation campaigns, recruitment, extortion, and intelligence gathering. The article also considers the challenges policymakers and law enforcement face in mitigating these malicious uses.

Key Points:

1. Generative AI can lower the technical threshold for actions like cyber espionage and cyberattacks, which were not previously major capabilities of nonstate armed actors.
2. Policymakers should focus on the harms of different AI systems or models, rather than just their size, as an indicator of risk. Auditing processes are also important to assess the risks and benefits of open-sourcing a model.
3. International consensus on common standards is crucial, especially with nations whose governance norms may differ from democratic partners like the United States.
4. AI can be leveraged by law enforcement and military personnel to detect potential harms, but success depends on effective utilization of these technologies.
5. Open collaboration in cyberspace has been critical in identifying and thwarting cyberattacks, but open-sourcing AI models poses risks of adaptation for malicious use.

Implications for Nonstate Armed Actors:

• Generative AI tools could enhance disinformation, recruitment, and intelligence efforts by producing convincing fake content.
• Predictive AI could be used to optimize weaponry and personnel deployment, reducing tactical advantages of state actors.
• Generative AI could facilitate cybercrimes like extortion and cyber-espionage by making spearfishing campaigns more sophisticated and difficult to detect.

Policy Recommendations:

• National legislation should focus on the specific harms of AI systems and include auditing processes.
• International cooperation is needed to establish shared standards for AI governance.
• Investments in AI tools for law enforcement should be balanced with respect for human rights and maintaining human control over decision-making processes.

This is a brief overview of the Valerie Wirtschafter's article from Brookings. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.