The generative world order: AI, geopolitics, and power

Overview:

• This article was written by Jared Cohen, George Lee, Lucas Greenbaum, Frank Long, and Wilson Shirley, published by Goldman Sachs Global Institute.
• It explores the transformative impact of generative AI on global markets, geopolitics, and the balance of power among nations.
• The authors discuss the urgent need for strategic planning during the "inter-AI years" to shape the future of AI-enabled technology.

Key Quotes:

1. "The emergence of generative AI marks a transformational moment that will influence the course of markets and alter the balance of power among nations."
2. "Decisions made today will determine what is possible in the future. A generative world order will emerge.​

What They Discuss:

• The article highlights the potential of generative AI to contribute 1.5% to annual productivity growth over ten years, lifting global GDP by nearly $7 trillion.
• It emphasizes the role of AI in economic growth, technological revolution, and geopolitical dynamics.
• The authors examine the US and China's position as AI superpowers and their complex relationship as competitors and collaborators in AI research.
• The significant role of large language models (LLMs) in AI innovation and competition is analyzed, along with the concerns and strategies of open and closed societies regarding AI.
• The impact of US-led export controls on semiconductors on China's technological development is discussed, highlighting the geopolitical implications.

What They Recommend:

• The authors recommend a strategic approach to AI development, balancing the need for innovation with the management of risks and geopolitical considerations.
• They suggest fostering international cooperation and partnerships in AI research and development to address global challenges and opportunities.

Key Takeaways:

• Generative AI is reshaping global economic and geopolitical landscapes, with significant implications for national strategies and international relations.
• The US and China are key players in the AI domain, with their actions influencing the global AI landscape.
• Strategic planning and international collaboration are essential for harnessing the potential of AI while managing its risks and challenges.​

This is a brief overview of Lucas Greenbaum, Frank Long, and Wilson Shirley's work from Goldman Sachs. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.