The generative world order: AI, geopolitics, and power

• Christopher S. Chivvis and Jennifer Kavanagh at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discuss the potential for AI to both enhance and complicate decision-making within the U.S. National Security Council, highlighting challenges like information overload and misperceptions.
• The article asserts that advanced AI could combat groupthink by offering diverse perspectives but also risks intensifying it due to overconfidence in AI systems, and emphasizes the need for training and AI governance to ensure effective use and stability in crises.

• Experts at Brookings argue that Kamala Harris has regained lost ground for the Democrats, erasing the "enthusiasm gap" and leading in both national and key swing state polls against Donald Trump.
• They examine the reliability of poll averages, highlighting historical underestimation of Trump’s support and the necessity for Harris to maintain significant momentum to secure victory.

• Elaine Kamarck and William A. Galston at Brookings examine that the Republican National Convention highlighted a stark contrast between a verbose Trump and a struggling Biden, leading to widespread speculation about Biden's potential exit and Kamala Harris's possible rise as the Democratic candidate.
• The article argues that while Trump missed an opportunity to solidify his lead with a long-winded, undisciplined speech, Democratic officials and voters are increasingly viewing Biden as a weakened candidate, potentially paving the way for Harris to step in and challenge Trump's controversial policies.

• Elaine Kamarck at Brookings writes that Joe Biden's endorsement of Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party's nomination is due to her extensive presidential-level vetting, practical time constraints, and her robust political experience.

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• The article asserts that Harris' widespread delegate support, substantial financial backing, and the urgent need for party unity and focus on the general election are key reasons for the swift consolidation around her candidacy.

• Experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argue that China's Third Plenum communiqué remains vague on demand-side measures, even though boosting consumption is widely seen as crucial for sustainable growth.

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• The analysis suggests that despite consensus on the need for stronger consumer demand, Beijing faces challenges in shifting from an investment-driven economy due to long-standing transfers that benefit manufacturing, infrastructure, and local governments at the expense of households.