The Gaza War Has Convinced Russia It Was Right All Along

Overview:

This article was written by Nikita Smagin, offering a comprehensive analysis of Russia's foreign policy in light of the Gaza War. 

• The Gaza conflict has reinforced Russia's belief in the correctness of its foreign policy approach, particularly in relation to the Western-centric international system.
• Russia views the conflict as an opportunity to further its geopolitical interests, especially amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Key Quotes:

• "The conflict in the Middle East is the perfect crisis for Russia, which is reaping a whole host of political benefits."
• "Moscow’s bet on the disintegration of a Western-oriented international order appears to be paying off."

What They Discuss:

• The article discusses how the Gaza War has led to a resurgence of internal Western disagreements, particularly in Europe's stance towards Israel.
• It highlights societal divisions and discontent among U.S. officials regarding America's pro-Israel stance.
• The piece notes the impact of the Gaza conflict on shifting international focus away from the Ukraine war.
• Smagin addresses the perceived hypocrisy in the West's approach to conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, affecting its credibility in the Global South.
• The article examines Russia's cautious stance in the Middle East, balancing its interests with Iran and its position on Israel.​

What They Recommend:

• The author suggests that Russia will likely remain a passive actor in the Israel-Hamas conflict, avoiding direct involvement.
• Russia will likely maintain a balance in its Middle East policy, considering public opinion and its international relationships.

Key Takeaways:

• The Gaza War has solidified Russia's belief in its foreign policy direction, emphasizing state interests over moral or ideological considerations.
• Russia's approach to the conflict illustrates its strategic use of international crises to advance its geopolitical agenda.
• The conflict has exposed and possibly widened rifts within Western alliances, offering Russia potential strategic advantages.

This is a brief overview of Nikita Smagin's work from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.