Russia Is a Strategic Spoiler in the Indo-Pacific

Overview:

This article was written by Derek Grossman at RAND Corporation, highlighting two key insights:

• Russia continues to solidify its presence and strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, countering U.S. influence and leveraging relationships with China and North Korea.
• Despite Russia's active engagement, its influence in the Indo-Pacific is still considerably less significant than that of China and the United States.

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Key Quotes:

• "Although the Kremlin seems to desire a Cold War II–style bloc standoff between the West and East, it is unlikely to succeed in the Indo-Pacific region."
• "While Russia's sway is not at the level of China's or the United States', it is certainly enough to promote its anti-Western interests and disrupt the already precarious regional order."

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What They Discuss:

• Between May and June, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China, North Korea, and Vietnam to reinforce strategic alliances, also meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
• Half of Southeast Asia, much of South Asia, and nearly all Pacific Island countries abstained from participating in the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland, underscoring Russia's influence.
• While Russia lacks substantial economic offerings beyond arms and oil to Indo-Pacific nations, it strives to counter U.S. "hegemony" and distract from its actions in Ukraine.
• Russia and North Korea renewed a 1961 defense pact, potentially heightening tensions with South Korea and affecting Seoul's stance on military aid to Ukraine.
• North Korea has sent over 11,000 containers of munitions to Moscow since a September 2023 meeting, stemming from an agreement for mutual military aid and technical support.

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What They Recommend:

• The United States should avoid overreacting to the Russia–North Korea defense pact, recognizing that Russian military intervention in the Indo-Pacific is improbable while its focus remains on Ukraine.
• Washington should focus on building its Indo-Pacific strategy without being distracted by Moscow's attempts to sow discord.

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Key Takeaways:

• Russia aims to establish strong strategic relationships in the Indo-Pacific as a counterbalance to U.S. influence, particularly aligning with China and North Korea.
• Indo-Pacific nations are largely pursuing nonalignment strategies rather than forming rigid alliances with Moscow or Beijing.
• The Kremlin's current influence is enough to disrupt regional dynamics and foster anti-Western sentiment, but it does not yet parallel the strategic weight of China or the U.S.
• A cautious and measured U.S. response is advisable, maintaining focus on broader Indo-Pacific strategies without becoming overly concerned with Russia's maneuvers.

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This is a brief overview of the article by Derek Grossman at RAND Corporation. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.