North Carolina’s emergence as a swing state could help Biden win in November

Overview:  

This article was written by Elaine Kamarck and Deirdre Keenan at Brookings.

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• North Carolina has become a swing state due to significant population growth and shifting demographics.
• The Democratic Party is focusing on mobilizing young voters and re-engaging rural communities as part of their 2024 strategy.

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Key Quotes:

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• “Then in 2008, Barack Obama, the first successful African American presidential candidate, eked out a victory that was widely attributed to very high African American turnout.”
• “As a result of his far-right views and inflammatory rhetoric, Robinson has struggled to garner support outside of his conservative evangelical base—alienating moderate voters and anti-Trump Republicans.”

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What They Discuss:

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• The Raleigh-Durham-Cary combined statistical area has seen a population increase of 5.6% since 2020, drawing people from heavily Democratic states.
• From 2011 to 2021, the largest increases in net migration to North Carolina came from Democratic strongholds such as California and New York.
• Nearly 90% of the 900,000+ people who moved to North Carolina between 2010 and 2020 are people of color, many likely to vote Democratic.
• The percentage of North Carolinians with at least a bachelor’s degree is rising, correlating with a Democratic voter increase.
• In 2022, Democrats left over 25% of state legislative races unchallenged, which strengthened the Republican stronghold in North Carolina.

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What They Recommend:

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• Encourage young people to register to vote and participate as volunteers to support the Democratic campaign.
• Contest every state legislative race to challenge the Republican majority and leverage “down-ballot” momentum.
• Address radical candidates like Mark Robinson to galvanize voter turnout against extremist views.

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Key Takeaways:

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• North Carolina’s swing state status is influenced by demographic changes and migration from Democratic states.
• The North Carolina Democratic Party’s strategy includes mobilizing young voters, re-engaging rural communities, and contesting all state legislative races.
• Down-ballot races can significantly impact top-of-the-ticket outcomes, similar to momentum seen in the 2020 Georgia Senate races.
• Far-right candidates like Mark Robinson may drive moderate and anti-Trump Republican voters to support Democratic candidates, including President Biden.

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This is a brief overview of the article by Elaine Kamarck and Deirdre Keenan at Brookings. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.