Brookings
·
Published
May 9, 2024
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Summary

  • Elaine Kamarck and Deirdre Keenan at Brookings argue that North Carolina has become a key swing state due to significant population growth and shifting demographics, particularly in the Raleigh-Durham-Cary area, which is attracting college-educated professionals and new residents from heavily Democratic states, indicating a potential Democratic advantage in upcoming elections.
  • The analysis asserts that efforts by the North Carolina Democratic Party, led by Anderson Clayton, to mobilize young voters, re-engage rural communities, and contest every legislative race could generate significant momentum and potentially tilt the state toward a Democratic victory in the 2024 presidential election.

Overview:  

This article was written by Elaine Kamarck and Deirdre Keenan at Brookings.

  • North Carolina has become a swing state due to significant population growth and shifting demographics.
  • The Democratic Party is focusing on mobilizing young voters and re-engaging rural communities as part of their 2024 strategy.

Key Quotes:

  • “Then in 2008, Barack Obama, the first successful African American presidential candidate, eked out a victory that was widely attributed to very high African American turnout.”
  • “As a result of his far-right views and inflammatory rhetoric, Robinson has struggled to garner support outside of his conservative evangelical base—alienating moderate voters and anti-Trump Republicans.”

What They Discuss:

  • The Raleigh-Durham-Cary combined statistical area has seen a population increase of 5.6% since 2020, drawing people from heavily Democratic states.
  • From 2011 to 2021, the largest increases in net migration to North Carolina came from Democratic strongholds such as California and New York.
  • Nearly 90% of the 900,000+ people who moved to North Carolina between 2010 and 2020 are people of color, many likely to vote Democratic.
  • The percentage of North Carolinians with at least a bachelor’s degree is rising, correlating with a Democratic voter increase.
  • In 2022, Democrats left over 25% of state legislative races unchallenged, which strengthened the Republican stronghold in North Carolina.

What They Recommend:

  • Encourage young people to register to vote and participate as volunteers to support the Democratic campaign.
  • Contest every state legislative race to challenge the Republican majority and leverage “down-ballot” momentum.
  • Address radical candidates like Mark Robinson to galvanize voter turnout against extremist views.

Key Takeaways:

  • North Carolina’s swing state status is influenced by demographic changes and migration from Democratic states.
  • The North Carolina Democratic Party’s strategy includes mobilizing young voters, re-engaging rural communities, and contesting all state legislative races.
  • Down-ballot races can significantly impact top-of-the-ticket outcomes, similar to momentum seen in the 2020 Georgia Senate races.
  • Far-right candidates like Mark Robinson may drive moderate and anti-Trump Republican voters to support Democratic candidates, including President Biden.

This is a brief overview of the article by Elaine Kamarck and Deirdre Keenan at Brookings. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.

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Original Read Time
9 min
Organization
The Brookings Institution
Category
Israel-Gaza War
Political Ideology
Center Left

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