Kamala Harris’s chances in November could hinge on a women’s voting surge

Overview:  

This article was written by William H. Frey at Brookings.

• Vice President Kamala Harris's nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate has generated significant enthusiasm, particularly among women voters.
• The impact of the women’s vote, especially considering recent historical contexts such as the rejection of the predicted "red wave" in the 2022 midterm elections, will be pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2024 election.

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Key Quotes:  

• "Now, just weeks after most polls had President Joe Biden trailing his Republican rival Donald Trump, the emergence of Vice President Harris as the Democratic candidate has already injected enthusiasm among many Democrats, especially women."
• "Women’s health, abortion, and reproductive freedom—issues Harris has championed—will once again be leading issues for this election."

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What They Discuss:  

• Gender differences in presidential voting preferences demonstrate that women have consistently voted more for Democrats than for Republicans since 1984.
• In the 2020 election, women registered positive Democratic-Republican (D-R) margins in key battleground states, contributing significantly to Democratic successes.
• Women have higher voter turnout rates than men, and they have comprised more than half of all voters in recent elections, with a notable 9.7 million more female than male voters in 2020.
• The female electorate is becoming more diverse and highly educated, with increases in Democratic-favorable groups such as white college graduates and minorities and a decline in Republican-favorable groups like white non-college graduates.
• Polls indicated that Harris's candidacy led to a substantial increase in D-R margins among women, signaling a potential increase in Democratic support and turnout.

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What They Recommend:  

• Emphasize issues critical to women voters, such as women’s health, abortion rights, paid parental leave, and child care, which are likely to garner significant support for Harris.
• Capitalize on the enthusiasm and increased turnout among women voters to boost Democratic performance in the upcoming election.
• Strategically focus on key demographic shifts, particularly the increase in college-educated and minority women, to maximize voter outreach and support.

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Key Takeaways:  

• Women have historically supported Democratic candidates more than Republican ones, a trend likely to continue with Harris's nomination.
• Higher voter turnout rates among women and shifting demographics favor Democrats, providing a potential advantage in the election.
• Harris’s focus on women's issues and the newfound enthusiasm among female voters could be game-changing factors for the 2024 election.

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This is a brief overview of the article by William H. Frey at Brookings. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.