Denial Without Disaster—Keeping a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan Under the Nuclear Threshold

• Experts at Brookings argue that Kamala Harris has regained lost ground for the Democrats, erasing the "enthusiasm gap" and leading in both national and key swing state polls against Donald Trump.
• They examine the reliability of poll averages, highlighting historical underestimation of Trump’s support and the necessity for Harris to maintain significant momentum to secure victory.

• William H. Frey at Brookings argues that Vice President Kamala Harris's nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate has invigorated the race, with a particular impact on female voters who have historically supported Democratic candidates.

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• The analysis reviews that women's votes were crucial in recent elections, highlighting how post-Roe v. Wade changes and Harris’s advocacy on women's issues could lead to a significant voting surge, potentially favoring her in the 2024 election.

• Samantha Gross and Louison Sall at Brookings argue that Donald Trump advocates for a shift in U.S. energy policy, focusing on fossil fuels, reducing regulations, and opposing renewable energy initiatives to lower energy costs and achieve "energy dominance."
• The article asserts that Trump's ability to implement his energy agenda depends on Congress and the courts, with recent Supreme Court decisions potentially aiding his deregulatory efforts in a second term.

• Comfort Oshagbemi and David Wessel at Brookings examine why the U.S. spends substantially more on transportation infrastructure compared to other countries, highlighting limited state DOT capacity and over-reliance on consultants as key cost-drivers.
• The authors argue that limited competition and insufficient bidder outreach in the market for government construction contracts contribute to higher infrastructure costs in the U.S., and increasing bidder outreach and improving project planning can significantly reduce these costs.

• President Biden's public statements on the drone attack that killed 3 U.S. soldiers in Jordan shows the U.S. is keen to avoid war with Iran while focusing on Hezbollah's activities.
• The drone attack represents a significant escalation, marking the first US military casualty by enemy air power since 1953 and prompting a strategic withdrawal of Hezbollah from aggressive engagements with US forces in Iraq and Syria.